To me, this is saying that your maximum effective crit rate will never go above 65% when attacking a weak affinity. So while at an affinity disadvantage, your maximum effective crit rate is going to be 65% – even if you stats say otherwise" What's different about this matchup is that the 35% chance of getting a weak hit is locked: even if you build a million crit rate, it won't override that chance. This means that you need to build in 65% + 15% = 80% total, as the crit rate is lowered by 15% when attacking a disadvantage affinity.įrom the official video: "You can stack crit rate to override the remaining percentage of landing a normal hit. Your crit rate is limited to 65% when attacking a disadvantage affinity. So it's pretty likely that the 35% figure is wrong too. If you do the calculation backwards, assuming the 35% rate is correct, then there's only a 0.15% chance of getting the number of weak hits shown in your video. That works out to a margin of error of +/- 7.7%, meaning your video says there's a 95% chance that the actual rate of weak hits is between 16.1% - 31.4%. The margin of error with a 95% confidence interval is 1.92 * sqrt( p*(1-p) / n ) So I think it's safe to say you've pretty conclusively disproven Plarium's 15% lower crit rate statement.Īlso interesting is that your video says the hypothesis that 35% of the hits are weak hits is also incorrect. Total is 90 crits (76.3%), 28 weak (23.7%).Īssuming the 15% lower chance to crit hypothesis were correct, the odds of getting 90 hits all crit when 15% of them are supposed to not crit, is 0.85^90 = 0.000044%. 38 crits, 12 weak hits in the second half. I count 52 crits, 16 weak hits in the first half.
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